Social Europe

politics, economy and employment & labour

  • Themes
    • European digital sphere
    • Recovery and resilience
  • Publications
    • Books
    • Dossiers
    • Occasional Papers
    • Research Essays
    • Brexit Paper Series
  • Podcast
  • Videos
  • Newsletter

Could Brexit Be A Unifying Moment For Europe?

Catherine De Vries 7th July 2016

Catherine De Vries

Catherine de Vries

After the shock of the British referendum on EU membership last week, many pointed to a possible silver lining for the EU. Brexit could spark off further integration among the 27 member states that remain. The political paralysis that has emerged following the Eurozone and refugee crisis, characterised by fundamentally divergent thinking about further integrative steps in Europe’s national capitals, could give away to a more coordinated and European approach.

Comments by Xavier Bettel, the prime minister of Luxembourg, at the intergovernmental conference held in Brussels following the result of the UK’s referendum reflected this view: “We have more need than ever for a united Union rather than a disunited Kingdom.” Will Brexit prove to be a unifying moment for Europe?

We of course lack a crystal ball, and at present there are so many parts moving simultaneously that it is difficult to judge what the implications of the United Kingdom’s exit will be for Europe. Yet, we could speculate based on what we know about the integration process in the past. There have been numerous moments of crisis in the European integration process, and even some where single member states turned their back on Europe (albeit exit was not in the cards), such as the ‘empty chair crisis’ in the 1960s.

As a response to the proposal of making the European Commission a more powerful body, the French government under President Charles De Gaulle withdrew from the Council, leaving an empty chair at the negotiation table. France voted twice in EU referendums in 1963 and 1967. This time of political stalemate was resolved by an expansion of intergovernmental decision-making within the EU and a veto right for countries for all issues of ‘vital national interest’ (the so-called Luxembourg compromise), but it also led to more integration through other means. It shifted the focus of integration to legal matters, and was associated with an enormous push in economic and political integration through the establishment of the principles of direct effect and supremacy of EU law (over national law).

Whether the current crisis surrounding the Brexit result could also push the EU forward, by further financial and economic integration of the Eurozone for example, is debatable. Many things have changed between then and now. My ongoing research (here and here) suggests that questions about more or less integration have become enormously contested and are now part-and-parcel of domestic party competition and elections. Unlike the 1960s, further integrative steps cannot be pushed forward without closely calculating the costs of domestic electoral fallout.

Our job is keeping you informed!


Subscribe to our free newsletter and stay up to date with the latest Social Europe content.


We will never send you spam and you can unsubscribe anytime.

Thank you!

Please check your inbox and click on the link in the confirmation email to complete your newsletter subscription.

.

Although mainstream politicians might hope that the immediate financial and economic pain suffered by the UK since the Brexit vote deters the success of Eurosceptic parties, this deterrence effect is most likely short-lived. The concerns of ordinary voters, who are often opposed to the EU because of concerns about intra-EU immigration, austerity or opaque EU institutions remain unchanged. Further steps of integration across the continent will not be perceived to benefit those who feel that they are left behind and their children face limited prospects of upward mobility.

Eurosceptic parties across the EU mobilise these concerns effectively and will reap the electoral benefits, as they have done in the past. This is also in part a result of the deep internal divisions that government parties face about Europe. National governmental leaders who in the European Council need to decide on the long term direction of the integration process are not insulated in Brussels, they face the continued pressure to be re-elected and Europe is not popular at the ballot box. Expecting these politicians to motor on ahead in Europe seems unrealistic.

Next to the intricate connection that has grown between EU politics and incumbent electoral success, another factor makes the current situation stand out. The Eurozone crisis has uncovered an enormous rift between member states. Europe’s citizens are deeply divided when it comes to EU policy preferences. My research suggests that Eurosceptics in the North are primarily worried about intra-EU migration, while in the South fiscal austerity and widespread unemployment has led people to discontent with the lack of intra-EU fiscal solidarity and the absence of EU-wide transfers.

It seems hard to find a coordinated European solution to satisfy both constituencies simultaneously, especially in the short run. Whereas the introduction of transfers would require a transfer of policy competences to the EU level, the restriction of migration would violate one of the core principles of integration, namely the free movement of people. Whereas transfers are electorally unpopular in the North, restriction to intra-EU migration is in the South (and East).

Although it is possible to strike a balance between both demands by introducing some sort of transfer mechanism that would address structural imbalances in the Eurozone and as such limit the demand for migration in the future, this would be costly and the fruits of such reforms may only come to bear decades from now. Given the importance of EU matters for the re-election of national governments, current incumbents will most likely focus on their short-term political survival. The making and breaking of political careers post-Brexit will be a gentle reminder. Against this backdrop, muddling through will be the most likely response.


We need your support


Social Europe is an independent publisher and we believe in freely available content. For this model to be sustainable, however, we depend on the solidarity of our readers. Become a Social Europe member for less than 5 Euro per month and help us produce more articles, podcasts and videos. Thank you very much for your support!

Become a Social Europe Member

The problem with a possibly lackluster response to the grave economic, political and social problems facing the EU today will be that it allows Eurosceptics to keep using Brussels as an effective punch bag to reap electoral gains. The continued success of Eurosceptics again limits the room to manoeuvre for national governments at the European level. Although Brexit constitutes a possible integrative moment for Europe, it is doubtful that it can break the downward spiral of Euroscepticism.

This article originally appeared on EUROPP.

Catherine De Vries

Catherine E. De Vries is Westerdijk Chair and Professor of Political Behaviour in Europe, Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam.

Home ・ Politics ・ Could Brexit Be A Unifying Moment For Europe?

Most Popular Posts

schools,Sweden,Swedish,voucher,choice Sweden’s schools: Milton Friedman’s wet dreamLisa Pelling
world order,Russia,China,Europe,United States,US The coming world orderMarc Saxer
south working,remote work ‘South working’: the future of remote workAntonio Aloisi and Luisa Corazza
Russia,Putin,assets,oligarchs Seizing the assets of Russian oligarchsBranko Milanovic
Russians,support,war,Ukraine Why do Russians support the war against Ukraine?Svetlana Erpyleva

Most Recent Posts

Gazprom,Putin,Nordstream,Putin,Schröder How the public loses out when politicians cash inKatharina Pistor
defence,europe,spending Ukraine and Europe’s defence spendingValerio Alfonso Bruno and Adriano Cozzolino
North Atlantic Treaty Organization,NATO,Ukraine The Ukraine war and NATO’s renewed credibilityPaul Rogers
transnational list,European constituency,European elections,European public sphere A European constituency for a European public sphereDomènec Ruiz Devesa
hydrogen,gas,LNG,REPowerEU EU hydrogen targets—a neo-colonial resource grabPascoe Sabido and Chloé Mikolajczak

Other Social Europe Publications

The transatlantic relationship
Women and the coronavirus crisis
RE No. 12: Why No Economic Democracy in Sweden?
US election 2020
Corporate taxation in a globalised era

Hans Böckler Stiftung Advertisement

Towards a new Minimum Wage Policy in Germany and Europe: WSI minimum wage report 2022

The past year has seen a much higher political profile for the issue of minimum wages, not only in Germany, which has seen fresh initiatives to tackle low pay, but also in those many other countries in Europe that have embarked on substantial and sustained increases in statutory minimum wages. One key benchmark in determining what should count as an adequate minimum wage is the threshold of 60 per cent of the median wage, a ratio that has also played a role in the European Commission's proposals for an EU-level policy on minimum wages. This year's WSI Minimum Wage Report highlights the feasibility of achieving minimum wages that meet this criterion, given the political will. And with an increase to 12 euro per hour planned for autumn 2022, Germany might now find itself promoted from laggard to minimum-wage trailblazer.


FREE DOWNLOAD

ETUI advertisement

Bilan social / Social policy in the EU: state of play 2021 and perspectives

The new edition of the Bilan social 2021, co-produced by the European Social Observatory (OSE) and the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI), reveals that while EU social policy-making took a blow in 2020, 2021 was guided by the re-emerging social aspirations of the European Commission and the launch of several important initiatives. Against the background of Covid-19, climate change and the debate on the future of Europe, the French presidency of the Council of the EU and the von der Leyen commission must now be closely scrutinised by EU citizens and social stakeholders.


AVAILABLE HERE

Eurofound advertisement

Living and working in Europe 2021

The Covid-19 pandemic continued to be a defining force in 2021, and Eurofound continued its work of examining and recording the many and diverse impacts across the EU. Living and working in Europe 2021 provides a snapshot of the changes to employment, work and living conditions in Europe. It also summarises the agency’s findings on issues such as gender equality in employment, wealth inequality and labour shortages. These will have a significant bearing on recovery from the pandemic, resilience in the face of the war in Ukraine and a successful transition to a green and digital future.


AVAILABLE HERE

Foundation for European Progressive Studies Advertisement

EU Care Atlas: a new interactive data map showing how care deficits affect the gender earnings gap in the EU

Browse through the EU Care Atlas, a new interactive data map to help uncover what the statistics are often hiding: how care deficits directly feed into the gender earnings gap.

While attention is often focused on the gender pay gap (13%), the EU Care Atlas brings to light the more worrisome and complex picture of women’s economic inequalities. The pay gap is just one of three main elements that explain the overall earnings gap, which is estimated at 36.7%. The EU Care Atlas illustrates the urgent need to look beyond the pay gap and understand the interplay between the overall earnings gap and care imbalances.


BROWSE THROUGH THE MAP

About Social Europe

Our Mission

Article Submission

Membership

Advertisements

Legal Disclosure

Privacy Policy

Copyright

Social Europe ISSN 2628-7641

Social Europe Archives

Search Social Europe

Themes Archive

Politics Archive

Economy Archive

Society Archive

Ecology Archive

Follow us on social media

Follow us on Facebook

Follow us on Twitter

Follow us on LinkedIn

Follow us on YouTube